It’s time for my eagerly awaiting General Election predictions! After a fairly decent go of the European Election last year, I couldn’t let the opportunity to predict the most unpredictable election for years pass me by.
Who knows what will happen? Will the Liberal Democrats continue to ride the waves of their success after the first leaders’ debate? Or will the young idealists have got bored of politics and stayed away from the polling booths like they’re prone? Will the Conservatives have managed to convince the electorate to let them return? Or will the inability to communicate the “Big Society” return to haunt them? Will Labour have the trust of the voters to return the economy around? Or will the demand for change cause their supporters to look elsewhere?
Frankly, I don’t know. We’ll find out tonight, or more accurately, early tomorrow morning. But that’s not going to stop me having a go at guessing the results anyway. First up, let’s predict the share of the vote:

My predicted share of the vote
According to the BBC’s election seat calculator, that gives the following results:
- Conservatives: 280
- Labour: 261
- Liberal Democrats: 80
- Other: 29
However, as that predicts a uniform swing, it isn’t entirely accurate. In fact, an opinion poll by Ipsos MORI conducted in marginal seats predicted a 7% swing from Labour to the Conservatives. I can’t believe in reality that it’ll be as big as that, but it will still obviously be bigger than the uniform swing predicted above. Thus taking into account a slightly bigger swing away from Labour in marginals, my final predictions are as follows:
- Conservatives: 292
- Labour: 247
- Liberal Democrat: 82
- Other: 29
Therefore I predict a hung parliament, with the Conservatives short of a majority by 34 seats, and possibly also short of being able to form a coalition with the DUP. That said, not only is the election result incredibly unpredictable, so is what will happen afterward. There is nothing to stop a Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition taking place with these figures.
To go into some more detail about the smaller parties. I expect the SNP to return 6 seats, gaining Ochil & South Perthshire from Labour but losing either Perth & Perthshire North or Angus to the Conservatives. They will probably hold onto Dundee East from a Labour challenge. Plaid had 3 seats at the last election, but that is notionally down to 2 due to boundary changes. I expect them to pick up Arfon and Ynys Mon from Labour, or possibly Ceredigion from the Liberal Democrats, to gain 4 seats in total. However, I do regard them as the weakest of the nationalist parties and most likely to have a bad night, but it will mostly depend on the night Labour are having. They will definitely return 2 seats. Looking at the independent candidates, in Wyre Forest I expect Richard Taylor to be elected for a third time, but George Galloway (now Poplar & Limehouse) and Dai Davies (Blaenau Gwent) to lose both their seats to Labour. I expect the Northern Ireland parties to pick up 18 seats in total, which is guaranteed to be my most accurate prediction.
I wish I could do the same detailed analysis with all the parties, but frankly, I’d get it hopelessly wrong. And I’m riding my luck with guessing the few constituencies above, because local issues always have a part to play, that I have little knowledge of in areas other than Liverpool, Swindon and possibly Cambridge. But we can still ask one further question: will there be any Michael Portillos?
Well, nothing will ever quite be as satisfying as that moment, but a few big politicians could fall tonight. I’m going to predict that all Conservative and Liberal Democrat politicians will remain safe, although there’s always the chance they could trade blows with Oliver Letwin and Chris Huhne in very marginal seats. Labour however, definitely have politicians at risk. Jim Knight (who?) will go, as will Jacqui Smith, her of the expenses scandal, but I’ll give Tony McNulty the benefit of the doubt.
So, to conclude, I predict a hung parliament with a potential Conservative minority government. It will also be a good night for the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru will gain but the SNP will stay comfortably where they are. It will not be a disaster for Labour, although it might be for Jacqui Smith, but it will be disappointing for the Conservatives to have failed to gain a majority.
I’ll update tomorrow when we can see just how wrong I am.
Update 08/05/10: The final results are in:
- Conservatives: 307 (36.1%)
- Labour: 258 (29.0%)
- Liberal Democrats: 57 (23.0%)
- Others: 28 (11.9%)
Clearly, both the Conservatives and Labour did much better than I expected, with the big losers being the Liberal Democrats. This saddens me a lot, because there was a lot of hope and optimism throughout the campaign, but in the end, it was replaced by the fear of two party politics and everybody reverted to type.
In terms of the smaller parties, the SNP didn’t make any gains as I predicted, whilst Plaid did worse than I expected. I was also right that George Galloway and Dai Davies would lose their seats, but wrong that Richard Taylor would keep his.
With regards to personalities, it turns out that the BBC swingometer didn’t highlight all the ministers that could lose their seats, so I missed out on people like Shahid Malik. Interestingly, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats barely traded blows at all, and it seems as if where people knew they had a good MP (as opposed to a bad one marred by the expenses scandal, or even a new unknown candidate) they voted for them heavily. Evan Harris and Lembit Opik were both big shocks though, particularly the latter.
What’s interesting about the way the parliament has ended up is that the only obvious coalition is between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, but that’s really going to struggle. It’s going to be a very interesting time in Britain, but a good one as finally political parties learn to work together. And I hope they’ll need to, because I think we need to implement some form of proportional representation (either Single Transferable Vote or the Additional Member System) as soon as possible to restore the public’s connection with politics.